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Nov. 12, 2004
HARD TIMES BRING DIFFICULT
QUESTIONS
Finding
a return worth investing in makes one wonder if it's
overrated
By
SCOTT BURNS
Houston
Chronicle
August
2nd, 2004
Here's a
deeply rude question: Should we stop investing?
I'm
serious. Under current conditions, saving and
investing are worse than frustrating. It isn't
worthwhile. There must be better uses for our money
than investing in stocks, bonds or money market
funds.
Yes, I
know: This is close to blasphemy on the financial
pages of a daily newspaper. But that's how it looks.
There are thousands of investments out there. Most
of them aren't providing a decent return. Maybe
that's why Bill Gates is planning on giving his $3.2
billion dividend to charity. Let's
start by comparing four places to put our money:
stocks, bonds, cash and objects. We're going to
consider total returns and the impact of taxes and
inflation. When we do this, cash comes out worst.
Stocks are a sorry best — but we'll work our way up
from the bottom.
•
Cash. This is the money we keep in money
market mutual funds, Treasury bills and other highly
liquid forms of investment. Right now, money market
mutual funds yield about 1 percent. Many are earning
less. The difference between 1 percent and one-half
of 1 percent doesn't mean much. Once your yield is
pathetic, it's pathetic all the way down.
Taxing this yield could be the new definition of
"adding insult to injury." Assuming a 25 percent tax
bracket, a 1 percent yield is down to 0.75 percent.
The
official inflation rate for the 12 months ending
June 30 was 3.3 percent. But the trailing
three-month rate was 4.8 percent. So we'll pick a
number in between, say, 3.9 percent, as our
inflation estimate for 2004. That means we're losing
purchasing power at the rate of 3.15 percent a year.
Cash is trash, except that you can lose a lot more
elsewhere.
•
Bonds. We can do better than cash. All we
have to do is buy bonds and take the risk that
interest rates will rise. If they do, our return on
bonds may well net to the return on cash, as it did
for most investors over the last 12 months. (In the
12 months ending July 23, according to Morningstar,
the average total return on PIMCO Total Return,
Vanguard GNMA and Vanguard Total Bond Market funds —
the three largest fixed-income taxable bond funds —
was 2.98 percent. All three did better than their
category averages.)
But let's not worry. It's pretty easy to get a 4
percent yield on an intermediate-term Treasury these
days; we'll go with that. After we pay income taxes,
our 4 percent is down to 3 percent. That
means our after-tax, after-inflation return is a
loss of 0.9 percent — provided interest rates don't
rise.
•
Stuff. The sales force of the
investment/retirement complex won't tell you about
this because it won't put food on their tables, but
buying canned food for our tables (and other stuff)
is a pretty good use for money. If what we buy rises
in price with the general rate of inflation and we
still have it at the end of the year, you've broken
even. We have no tax liability. Our "return" is 0.0
percent.
True, the return won't put us on the cover of Money
magazine. But it beats bonds and cash.
•
Stocks. According to Ibbotson Associates,
large-capitalization stocks enjoyed annual capital
appreciation of 5.9 percent a year from 1926 through
2003. Add the current dividend yield of the average
stock, 1.5 percent, and we can look forward to a
total return of 7.4 percent.
Rather nice. Also, it's taxable at a bargain 15
percent rate. It nets us 6.3 percent before
inflation and 2.4 percent after inflation. That's
better than losing money or breaking even — until we
consider the risk. Stocks don't rise 5.9 percent a
year like clockwork.
Conclusion?
It's time
for us to reset our investing habits. Except for
savings dollars going into 401(k) plans where the
employer matches our contributions,
we need to look
at other uses for the money we save.
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