Agency says oil demand will leap

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - World oil demand should soar 37 percent from this year's almost 86 million barrels per day to 118 million bpd by 2030, even though higher fuel prices will cut back some consumption, the U.S. government's top energy forecasting agency predicted on Tuesday.

Much of the growth in global oil use over the next quarter century will come from the non-industrialized nations in Asia, where the strong economies of China and India will gobble up more barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Energy Department.

"What's driving that (oil demand) growth is assumptions about strong economic growth," EIA Administrator Guy Caruso said at a briefing on the agency's annual long-term international energy supply and demand forecast.

The transportation sector, where there are few competitive alternatives to petroleum for running cars and trucks, will account for a big part of the projected oil demand growth, he said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will provide a large chunk of the additional oil supplies that will be needed to meet demand in 2030, the EIA said.

However, the agency said OPEC's total share of global supply will fall from 39.7 percent (34 million bpd) of this year's world oil demand to 38.4 percent (45.3 million bpd) of global oil demand in 2030.

While worldwide oil consumption rises, expected high crude prices will reduce demand by some 8 million bpd than forecast last year in 2025 to 111 million bpd, EIA said. This year's forecast has projections out to 2030 for the first time.

Caruso said the EIA now expected long-term oil prices to be 35 percent higher, compared with last year's forecast, because of impediments to drilling for oil in non-OPEC countries, higher oil development costs due to the global rise in commodity prices, which has made steel for pipelines expensive, and problems finding personnel to manage big oil projects.

"We do think we're in a new era of oil prices (and) higher oil prices do result in lower oil demand growth," Caruso said.

However, a benefit of high prices is that they will spur production of unconventional oil sources, such as oil sands in Canada, heavy oil in Venezuela and processing U.S. coal into liquid fuels, Caruso said.

Oil production from non-OPEC countries in West Africa and the Caspian Sea region was forecast to increase sharply and grab a larger share of the global oil market over the next 25 years, according to the EIA.

Oil output was expected to decline in Norway, Europe's largest producer, from a peak of 3.6 million bpd this year to 2.5 million bpd in 2030.

Despite President George W. Bush's call for the United States to end its addiction to oil, Americans will use more crude and retain the title of the world's biggest energy consumers.

U.S. oil demand is forecast to jump from 20.8 million bpd this year to 27.6 million bpd in 2030, still accounting for about one out of every four barrels of crude consumed each day in the world.

The United States, China and India together will account for half of the projected increase in world oil use.

The EIA's long-term forecast to 2030 also predicted:

* Global natural gas consumption jumps from 95 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 182 trillion cubic feet;

* Coal use will grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent;

* High oil prices raise concerns about the security of energy supplies and increase nuclear power generating capacity;

* Carbon dioxide emissions linked to global warming rise from 25 billion tonnes in 2003 to 43.7 billion tonnes, with non-industrialized nations accounting for 75 percent of the increase in emissions by 2030;

* Renewables, like solar and wind power, meet 9.1 percent of U.S. energy demand in 2030, almost double from 5.7 percent in 2003.